FEATURES OF USING TECHNICAL ANALYSIS IN FORECASTING PRICE CONDITIONS ON ORGANIZED MARKETS

Abstract

The article highlights the theoretical foundations of technical analysis and the features of its use by scientists and derivatives market practitioners to assess the current state and forecast the derivatives market situation on organized commodity and financial markets. The economic essence of technical analysis is presented, which includes a set of graphical, mathematical, statistical methods combined with the psychology of human behavior and is used to predict price dynamics in commodity and financial markets. The historical stages of the evolution of technical analysis on international organized markets are presented. The stages of which include the use of technical analysis: in the early stages of the formation of stock trading; during the period of laying the foundations of the "Dow Theory"; during the development of the "Elliott Wave Theory"; mathematical indicators; АІ in the generation of new approaches to the use of technical indicators. It is noted that the basis of the technical analysis methodology is three main principles: “the organized market takes everything into account”; “the movement of stock prices occurs according to certain trends”; “the history of stock prices repeats itself”. Two methods of technical analysis of stock market indicators are presented: graphical analysis and mathematical analysis. Among the most well-known and widely used technical indicators are: Moving Averages; Stochastic; Relative Strength Index (RSI); Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD). The main requirements and components of the methodology for conducting technical analysis on organized markets are systematized. It is noted that the main direction of development of technical analysis is the use of АІ capabilities for forecasting price situations on organized markets. It has been established that in the era of Internet technologies, the use of technical analysis has become accessible to all participants, especially with the advent of online trading exchange platforms and embedded software. To create price charts, it is now enough to log into the exchange platform and use the available technical analysis tools to forecast derivatives prices.